By this time you should be through night four of The White Tiger. For the weekend, and for our next class, let's get through the fifth night. In addition, we have been examining India's economy, and it has shown itself to be one thing up close, and a very different thing further away. Examine the two videos below, then go on the search for more information regarding India's economy. Our task for the weekend is not to discover an answer to any particular question about India, but to consider what the right questions are to ask about India's economy. Please post in the comments and copy any links you find that are interesting to our study. Again, what are the right questions to ask about India and its economy?
JMN
India's Economy: The Road Ahead
Is India's Economy at a Standstill?
2 comments:
(Disclaimer: this comment just followed my train of thought. I'll assume that the contradictions were natural.) The question for the weekend is, what are the right questions to ask about India and its economy? I think personally, when we're thinking about a problem in general, (you may disagree with me), you approach it scientifically. So, I was thinking about why we need to ask questions about India's economy-- I mean, yes, we can perform thought experiments for fun, but there are problems with India's economy that we want to tackle, and this is the first step. After all, we're not performing thought experiments on things that are already working well.
By asking questions, we're looking for some kind of result. We don't know the answer to anything, but we are hoping to get closer to a goal with the type of answer that we expect. So we want questions that maximize the probability of us getting closer to that goal. But first, we have to define what that goal is. I've come up with a few possibilities.
-We want to be able to predict the status of India so that in the future, so that in planning our own (US) economy, we can be anticipatory instead of reactive.
-We want to see if there India fits a theory or pattern of collapse, so that we can avoid those preconditions so that our own society doesn't collapse.
-We want to see if India is successful, and if they are, what they are doing right so that we can follow their example.
-As students at Viewpoint, we have a love of learning and a desire to improve our critical thinking and research skills and etc. etc. etc. this is propaganda of some sort or whatever other game Mr. Nicholson is playing.
Avoiding that last bullet point for now, in any of the other three cases, we have to come up with whether or not India should be viewed as an example of a society prone to failure or success. Or do we? Why not just table that for now, and come up with questions that have to do with either case?
1) If India is a model of success, then what are they doing right?
2) If India is a model of failure, what are they doing wrong?
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I have a problem with defining economic success and failure. Growth is a common indicator of economic success and failure, but theoretically at least, a lack of growth can still be present in a stable economy (As Ruppert says, infinite growth is incompatible with finite resources). Instead, I think the key isn't necessarily looking at growth, but looking at socioeconomic factors that have to do with whether the economy is serving its own people. There are a few components to what I'll just spontaneously call India's "social economy."
3) Is India's poverty problem getting better or worse?
4) Is there an inequitable distribution of wealth that is facilitating India's poverty problem?
5) Is the government facilitating or curbing India's poverty problem?
6) Are there any other factors that are responsible for India's poverty problem?
Another question we have to ask about the social economy is whether it is stable. Even if right now, India is showing signs of success, if it isn't stable, then it's not a very good model.
7) Is India's economy stable?
8) What are possible factors that could be contributing to its instability?
9) (as Moody was saying in class) Is it a detriment or benefit that India skipped straight from an agricultural economy to a service-based economy?
These are fairly broad questions. You could take a different approach; and look at all the things that we defined as "India's economy" in the previous post, and then simply ask the question, Is X good or bad?
It kind of depends on what you're trying to do, though.
What are the right questions to ask about India?
I don't think there is a simple answer; Expecting to answer any question about the future of India requires us to assume that an answer can even be predicted. The answer to the question will India collapse or prosper, is pure speculation. Every theory of collapse we've examined, from Ruppert to Acemoglu has been contingent on the theory that humans are predictable. Yes, much of history relies on the study of common themes and trends over periods of time. However, history is written in hindsight, and these themes are examined after the fact. Humans are notoriously bad at forecasting the future (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affective_forecasting). Thus, we should not begin our discussion by asking big questions. Instead, we should with one small basic question (with several subquestions)
1. What do Indians want?
(I don't mean abstract things like "a brighter future" or "economic prosperity," but rather more primal things like access to water or a job.
1a. And although Indian culture is different from European or American cultures, what affect does culture actually have on an individuals motives? Is he/she driven by instincts or by societal forces?
I believe this is the only question worth asking at this point in time. Once this question is answered, the investigation can begin.
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